SAS^® Forecasting for Midsize Business

Features

Automatic forecasting.

• Automatically forecast for large numbers of products, entities or tasks; optimize model parameters.
• Include or add any number of business drivers and events in your models to produce the forecast that best depicts your business.
• Specify holdout samples so that forecasting models can be selected based not only on their fit with past data but also on their likelihood to predict the future.
• Perform automatic hierarchical forecasting – define the hierarchy and model parameters through an interactive graphical interface.
• Employ flexible hierarchies. Users can define their own hierarchies to make them more suitable to their particular forecasting challenge. Different projects can have different hierarchies.
• Reconcile up and down the hierarchy, preserving locked forecast values.
• Generate exception reports based on sound statistical logic and business rules.
• Support forecasting as an ongoing and repeated process that fits into your organizational planning workflow.
• Publish results via hard copy, the company portal or the Internet.

Unlimited model repository.

• Extensible model repository meets all your forecasting needs.
• Comprehensive repository comes complete with a broad range of built-in models, such as:
  • Time-series methods, including:
    • Single exponential smoothing. 
    • Holt's/Brown's two-parameter exponential smoothing.
    • Winter's three-parameter exponential smoothing (additive/multiplicative).
    • ARIMA.
  • Causal methods, including:
    • ARIMAX (ARIMA with intervention and causal variables). 
    • Lagged variables/transfer functions  
  • Dynamic multiple regression.
  • Unobserved components model (UCM).
• Open model repository allows users to create and add their own custom models.

Easy-to-use graphical user interface.

• Use automated forecasting and set up the hierarchy, parameters and business rules through an interactive graphical interface.
• Employ an eight-step project wizard that walks analysts through the steps to set up a new forecasting project or work with existing projects. Users can generate automatic forecasts in batch mode or through the interactive GUI.
• Easily add events that might influence the forecast – such as holidays and promotions – through an events dialog box.
• Guide analysts through the development of custom forecasting models, built from scratch or based on models in the repository, using a model-builder dialog box.
• Give analysts multiple ways to work with the forecast results using forecast, series and model views.
• Let analysts use the scenario analysis view to create what-if scenarios – such as changes to pricing or promotions – and determine their likely effects on future demand.
• Identify exceptions automatically – generate exception reports based on sound statistical logic and business rules.
• Employ the user-override facility to manually forecast statistical values; override the locking facility if needed.
• Publish results automatically via hard copy, company portal or Internet using extensible reporting tools.

Data preparation.

• Automatically aggregate raw transaction data by time period into time-series data.

Event-modeling console.

• Use the interactive GUI to include predefined holiday events (e.g., Christmas or Easter). 
• Realign dates automatically for Easter and other moving holidays.
• Use the customer event creator with four event types: pulse, ramp up/down level shift, temporary. 

What-if analysis and scenario planning.

• Use the plug-in for the SAS Forecast Server GUI (which includes what-if planning capabilities) to change model parameter estimates and determine the effects on forecasts.