AI shopping agents set to transform Christmas retail by 2030

New analysis estimates that by 2030, Christmas online retail sales are expected to exceed £7 billion per week, with approximately £550 million influenced by AI shopping agents.

Data and AI leader SAS analysed ONS retail data and industry growth forecasts to estimate how much of the online shopping journey will be supported by agentic AI in 2030.

Major payment providers such as Mastercard and PayPal are already using agentic AI, an autonomous system that can monitor customer interactions as they happen, to identify when intervention is needed and take action.  This can include flagging and blocking potentially fraudulent transactions, proactively offering support via chat or in-app prompts, or automatically resolving issues such as payment failures.

According to Worldpay, AI agent spending will influence 7% of online purchases by 2030.

Last December, UK internet retail sales hit £2.4 billion per week according to ONS data, highlighting the scale of online shopping during the  Christmas period - compared to £2.3 billion the prior year. SAS analysis suggests that, with the ecommerce market forecast to grow by 22% CAGR by 2030, festive spending could soar to £7.9 billion per week.

Of that, an estimated £550 million is expected to be shaped by AI shopping agents alone, with up to 90% of retail decision-makers already exploring AI agents to improve operational efficiency.

By automating tasks such as product search and checkout, these systems could save customers time and reduce stress, while reshaping the online experience.

Commenting on this research, Dr Iain Brown, Head of AI and Data Science at SAS Northern Europe, said:

"AI shopping agents represent a much deeper layer of intelligence in online retail compared to a typical chatbot. In finance, retail and healthcare, agentic systems are streamlining everything from compliance and customer service to supply chains. By monitoring interactions in real time and making autonomous decisions, these systems can personalise customer experiences and streamline processes, helping consumers navigate the complexity of the festive season more efficiently.

“The festive period can be demanding for both shoppers and retailers, but the long-term value of AI agent systems extends far beyond Christmas. By embedding autonomous intelligence into their operations, businesses can deliver more efficient, responsive and customer-focused experiences all year round."

For more information on SAS, visit https://www.sas.com/en_gb/home.html

ENDS

Methodology

To estimate the potential impact of agentic AI on UK Christmas retail, we first established the total value of online Christmas spending using ONS data. SAS then modelled future market growth to 2030 by applying a compound annual growth rate of 22%, as forecast by Mordor Intelligence. Finally, we incorporated AI adoption projections from Worldpay, which suggest that AI shopping agents could influence approximately 7% of total online spending by 2030. This enabled SAS to calculate the proportion of Christmas retail spend likely to be influenced by agentic AI.

ONS data was taken from the most recent Retail Sales Index internal sales, and SAS used data of ‘value seasonally adjusted average weekly internet sales in pounds million’ from December 2025.