AI reality vs. myth: Twelve predictions from SAS for 2024
AI will not take all jobs nor end civilization. But it will help businesses make better decisions.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere. And stories are rampant about its promise and its threat. Will AI’s potential be realized in the year ahead? SAS, the leader in AI and analytics, asked executives and experts across the company to predict trends and key business and technology developments in AI for 2024. Below are some of the predictions they shared.
Visit SAS’ 2024 AI predictions page for more trends and forecasts.
Generative AI will augment (not replace) a comprehensive AI strategy
“Generative AI technology does a lot of things, but it can’t do everything. In 2024, organizations will pivot from viewing generative AI as a stand-alone technology to integrating it as a complement to industry-specific AI strategies. In banking, simulated data for stress testing and scenario analysis will help predict risks and prevent losses. In health care, that means the generation of individualized treatment plans. In manufacturing, generative AI can simulate production to identify improvements in quality, reliability, maintenance, energy efficiency and yield.”
– Bryan Harris, Chief Technology Officer, SAS
[Note: Earlier this year, SAS committed $1 billion to AI-powered industry solutions.]
AI will create jobs
“In 2023, there was a lot of worry about the jobs that AI might eliminate. The conversation in 2024 will focus instead on the jobs AI will create. An obvious example is prompt engineering, which links a model's potential with its real-world application. AI helps workers at all skill levels and roles to be more effective and efficient. And while new AI technologies in 2024 and beyond may cause some short-term disruptions in the job market, they will spark many new jobs and new roles that will help drive economic growth.”
– Udo Sglavo, Vice President of Advanced Analytics, SAS
AI will enhance responsible marketing
“As marketers we must consciously practice responsible marketing. Facets of this are awareness of the fallibility of AI and alertness to possible bias creeping in. While AI offers the promise of enhanced marketing and advertising programs, we know that biased data and models beget biased results. In SAS Marketing, we are implementing model cards that are like an ingredient list, but for AI. Whether you create or apply AI, you are responsible for its impact. That's why all marketers, regardless of technical know-how, can review the model cards, validate that their algorithms are effective and fair, and adjust as needed.”
– Jennifer Chase, Chief Marketing Officer, SAS
Financial firms will embrace AI amid a Dark Age of Fraud
“Even as consumers signal increased fraud vigilance, generative AI and deepfake technology are helping fraudsters hone their multitrillion-dollar craft. Phishing messages are more polished. Imitation websites look stunningly legitimate. A crook can clone a voice with a few seconds of audio using simple online tools. We are entering the Dark Age of Fraud, where banks and credit unions will scramble to make up for lost time in AI adoption – incentivized, no doubt, by regulatory shifts forcing financial firms to assume greater liability for soaring APP [authorized push payment] scams and other frauds.”
– Stu Bradley, Senior Vice President of Risk, Fraud and Compliance Solutions, SAS
Shadow AI will challenge CIOs
“CIOs have struggled with ‘shadow IT’ in the past and will now confront ‘shadow AI’ – solutions used by or developed within an organization without official sanction or monitoring by IT. Well-intentioned employees will continue to use generative AI tools to increase productivity. And CIOs will wrestle daily with how much to embrace these generative AI tools and what guardrails should be put in place to safeguard their organizations from associated risks.”
– Jay Upchurch, Chief Information Officer, SAS
Multimodal AI and AI simulation will reach new frontiers
“The integration of text, images and audio into a single model is the next frontier of generative AI. Known as multimodal AI, it can process a diverse range of inputs simultaneously, enabling more context-aware applications for effective decision making. An example of this will be the generation of 3D objects, environments and spatial data. This will have applications in augmented reality [AR], virtual reality [VR], and the simulation of complex physical systems such as digital twins.”
– Marinela Profi, AI/Generative AI Strategy Advisor, SAS
Digital-twin adoption will accelerate
“Technologies like AI and IoT [Internet of Things] analytics drive important sectors of the economy, including manufacturing, energy and government. Workers on the factory floor and in the executive suite use these technologies to transform huge volumes of data into better, faster decisions. In 2024, the adoption of AI and IoT analytics will accelerate through broader use of digital-twin technologies, which analyze real-time sensor and operational data and create duplicates of complex systems like factories, smart cities and energy grids. With digital twins, organizations can optimize operations, improve product quality, enhance safety, increase reliability and reduce emissions.”
– Jason Mann, Vice President of IoT, SAS
Insurers will confront climate risk, aided by AI
“After decades of anticipation, climate change has transformed from speculative menace to genuine threat. Global insured losses from natural disasters surpassed $130 billion in 2022, and insurers worldwide are feeling the squeeze. US insurers, for example, are under scrutiny for raising premiums and withdrawing from hard-hit states like California and Florida, leaving tens of millions of consumers in the lurch. To survive this crisis, insurers will increasingly adopt AI to tap the potential of their immense data stores to shore up liquidity and be competitive. Beyond the gains they realize in dynamic premium pricing and risk assessment, AI will help them automate and enhance claims processing, fraud detection, customer service and more.”
– Troy Haines, Senior Vice President of Risk Research and Quantitative Solutions, SAS
AI importance will grow in government
“The workforce implications of AI will start being felt in government. Governments have a hard time attracting and retaining AI talent since experts command such high salaries, however, they will aggressively recruit for expertise to support regulatory actions. And like enterprises, governments will also increasingly turn to AI and analytics to boost productivity, automate menial tasks and mitigate that talent shortage.”
– Reggie Townsend, Vice President of the SAS Data Ethics Practice
Generative AI will bolster patient care
“To advance health and improve patient and member experiences, organizations will further develop generative AI-powered tools in 2024 for personalized medicine, such as the creation of patient-specific avatars for use in clinical trials and the generation of individualized treatment plans. Additionally, we will see the emergence of generative AI-based systems for clinical decision support, delivering real-time guidance to payers, providers and pharmaceutical organizations.”
– Steve Kearney, Global Medical Director, SAS
Deliberate AI deployment will make or break insurers
“In 2024, one of the top 100 global insurers will go out of business as a consequence of deploying generative AI too quickly. Right now, insurers are rolling out autonomous systems at breakneck speed with no tailoring to their business models. They’re hoping that using AI to crunch through claims quickly will offset the last few years of poor business results. But after 2023’s layoffs, remaining staff will be spread too thin to enact the necessary oversight to deploy AI ethically and at scale. The myth of AI as a cure-all will trigger tens of thousands of faulty business decisions that will lead to a corporate collapse, which may irreparably damage consumer and regulator trust.”
– Franklin Manchester, Global Insurance Strategic Advisor, SAS
Public health will get an AI boost from academia
“Public health is achieving technologic modernization at an unprecedented rate. Whether overdoses or flu surveillance, using data to anticipate public health interventions is essential. Forecasting and modeling are rapidly becoming the cornerstone of public health work, but government needs help. Enter academia. We will see an increase in academic researchers carrying out AI-driven modeling and forecasting on behalf of government. It is clear after COVID-19 that the protection of our population will require exceptional technology and collaboration.”
– Dr. Meghan Schaeffer, National Public Health Advisor and Epidemiologist, SAS
This spring, you can talk with SAS executives about their predictions and explore the latest in AI and analytics. Join business leaders and analytics experts for SAS Innovate, April 16-19, 2024, in Las Vegas. Sign up today for updates on the conference and early-bird pricing.
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SAS AI predictions and trends for 2024