Nikos Kourentzes' Speech Abstract

Innovations in business forecasting in the context of supply chain

Abstract

Forecasting is increasingly complex due to a range of factors, such as the shortening of product life cycles, increasingly competitive markets, and aggressive marketing, amongst other factors. Yet, having accurate and reliable predictions for the future is essential in decision making.

Organisations often rely on over-simplistic forecasts or do not take advantage of all the information available, being limited by their analytical capabilities and forecasting practices. Low forecasting accuracy often leads to reduced service levels and customer satisfaction, while at the same time excessive resources are wasted, resulting in high costs for organisations.

This presentation will highlight best practices and recent innovations in business forecasting and how these can bring value to modern companies. The focus will be on how to: i) use statistical forecasting to produce accurate, automatic and robust forecasts; ii) model and understand special events and marketing activity; iii) use collaborative information from the supply chain, such as point-of-sale data, in your forecasts to mitigate the bullwhip effect; and iv) how to best prioritise your forecasting resources and include expert information in your forecasts.

Last but not least, we will discuss how improved forecasts can lead to increased service levels while reducing inventory and associated costs, leading to tangible benefits for organisations. The presentation is tailored for the decision makers and will provide a high-level overview of the different topics, avoiding mathematical technicalities.