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Nedbank predicts property market to stabilise by 2010Johannesburg, South Africa (30 July 2008) – Speaking at the quarterly Nedbank Analyst Forum hosted by SAS Institute last week, Dennis Dykes chief economist at Nedbank focused on the light at the end of a dim economic tunnel for South Africa. “Not wanting to focus too heavily on the current slump in our property and economic market I predict some recovery in 2009 and leading towards 2010,” says Dykes. Dykes was joined by two other speakers, Jaco Van den Berg, senior quantitative analyst for Nedbank retail, and Andrew Watt business development director at Lightstone risk management. The main focus of the forum was on the involved process of property valuation and determining market value. Van den Berg spoke on the use of automatic valuation models in managing property portfolios while Watt focused his presentation on risk management strategies in a high inflation and declining property values market. “While economic trends have become negative and consumer confidence lags, it is expected that the property market should slump as it has. Household spending has come to a juddering halt as consumers have started to feel the stress of inflation, interest and debts,” says Dykes However, instead of focusing on the negative market, Dykes looked forward to better economic results in the future. “While the housing market is reflecting the downturn in the overall economy, there is reason to believe stabilisation as I believe we will see some interest rate relief in 2009 with added relief in 2010 due to the expected activities in that year.” The Nedbank Analyst Forum was launched at the end of July 2007 as a joint venture between SAS and Nedbank’s retail business intelligence. The event is aimed at statisticians, data mining practitioners, analysts, and anyone involved in fields of credit risk and marketing analytics. “With the economy in its less positive state it is not only bond payers who need to assess their future. The need for banks to manage their credit risk has also become more important,” says André Zitzke, Solution Specialist at SAS. “It may take some time before banks feel the pinch of subprime losses but as interest rates rise, so too does risk. A credit risk solution like SAS can help businesses and banks alike prepare for future risks.”
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