Electric co-op forecasts demand, transmission needs

The Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative (NOVEC) provides power to 144,000 customers. To keep electric costs down and to reliably serve customers, NOVEC needs to know how much power to buy, transmit and deliver for its consumers. SAS Analytics provide NOVEC with a broad array of econometric and time series forecasting techniques, along with point-and-click interfaces that can grow with the utility.

SAS has the functionality to do what we need now and what we anticipate needing in the future.”
Jamie Hall

Jamie Hall
Senior Operations Research Analyst

Challenges for NOVEC

Doesn't produce its own power. The co-op needs to forecast power consumption accurately to make power purchasing decisions that will result in stable, competitively priced power for its consumers.

Must prudently provision for new or upgraded facilities such as substations and lines as its consumer base and consumer load grow.

Must optimally operate and maintain its electric infrastructure in order to provide superior service reliability at a competitive cost to its consumers.

Why SAS®?

Stability: "SAS has the functionality to do what we need now and what we anticipate needing in the future. It's the safe choice,'' says Jamie Hall, Senior Operations Research Analyst.

Ease of use: NOVEC analysts can point and click to build a model, making the product accessible to anyone, explains Ananya Kassahun, NOVEC Business Analyst. She had not used SAS before joining NOVEC.

SAS benefits

SAS automatically keeps track of the flow of the forecasting process and upwards of 50 time series used to build models.

Pulling in third-party and historical data from multiple sources is simple. The models use daily third-party weather forecasts and monthly economic information.

The model built in SAS provided a 21.7 percent improvement versus the competing model.

Future SAS uses

Determining the impact of load management programs.

novec-logo

Challenge

NOVEC needs to forecast demand for power and the need to build or upgrade electric infrastructure.

Solution

Benefits

The model built in SAS provided a 21.7% improvement over the competing model.

Les résultats présentés dans cet article sont spécifiques à des situations, problématiques métiers et données particulières, et aux environnements informatiques décrits. L'expérience de chaque client SAS est unique et dépend de variables commerciales et techniques propres, de ce fait les déclarations ci-dessus doivent être considérées dans un contexte. Les gains, résultats et performances peuvent varier selon les configurations et conditions de chaque client. SAS ne garantit ni ne déclare que chaque client obtiendra des résultats similaires. Les seules garanties relatives aux produits et services de SAS sont celles qui sont expressément stipulées dans les garanties contractuelles figurant dans l’accord écrit conclu avec SAS pour ces produits et services. Aucune information contenue dans le présent document ne peut être interprétée comme constituant une garantie supplémentaire. Les clients ont partagé leurs succès avec SAS dans le cadre d’un accord contractuel ou à la suite de la mise en œuvre réussie du progiciel SAS. Les noms de marques et de produits sont des marques déposées de leurs sociétés respectives.

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