Co-Chairs
Anne Milley, SASJerry Oglesby, SAS
Keynote Speakers
David Dickey, Ph.D., North Carolina State UniversityPaul Goodwin, Ph.D., University of Bath
Rajeeve Kaul, Auto Zone
Thomas Tileston, Warner Home Video
Session Speakers
Oral Capps, Ph.D., Texas A&M UniversityPat Cerrito, Ph.D., University of Louisville
Charles Chase, Information Resources, Inc.
Sven Crone, Lancaster University, UK
Elaine A. Deschamps, Ph.D., Washington State Senate
Kent W. Everingham, United States Coast Guard
Robert Fildes, Ph.D., Lancaster University, UK
Michael Gilliland, CFPIM, SAS Institute
Ken Grant, OG&E Electric Services
Edward Hayes-Hall, IBM
Chaman L. Jain, St. John's University
Brij Masand, Data Miners, Inc
Ernie Podraza, Reliant Energy
Ken Seiden, Quantec, LLC
Mark Thompson, Forefront Economics Inc
Scott Williams, eBay
Brenda Wolfe, SAS Institute
Terry Woodfield, Ph.D., SAS
Dr. Oral Capps is a demand and price analyst, with particular
expertise in econometric modeling and forecasting methods. He is a
nationally and internationally recognized leader in demand analysis,
specializing in working with large data bases. Applied research areas
include analyses of expenditure patterns of preprepared foods and foods
eaten away from home, analyses of health and nutrition issues, uses of
scanner-derived information for managerial decision-making in food
retailing, and analyses of regional, national, and international markets
for the agricultural, agribusiness and financial sectors. In addition, Dr.
Capps specializes in unilateral price effects of mergers and acquisitions
as well as evaluations of agricultural checkoff programs.
Currently a Full Professor and holder of the Southwest Dairy Marketing Endowed Chair in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University as well as founder and Managing Partner of Forecasting and Business Analytics, LLC, Dr. Capps was educated at Virginia Tech. He earned his B.S. in Mathematics in 1975, M.S. in Agricultural Economics in 1977, with a second M.S. in Statistics, and his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics in 1979. He has authored 105 refereed journal articles, and co-authored two books, Food Demand Analysis: Implications for Future Consumption and Introduction to Agricultural Economics. Another book, A Step-by-Step Approach to Economic Modeling and Forecasting, is forthcoming. In 1995, he was honored at Texas A&M University with the Association of Former Students' Distinguished Achievement Award for Teaching. In 1997, he was the recipient of the Journal of Food Distribution Research Best Journal Article Award. In 1998, he received recognition via the Vice Chancellor's Award in Excellence for Team Research at Texas A&M University. In 1999, he was the recipient of the American Agricultural Economics Association Distinguished Graduate Teaching Award, and a co-recipient of the Applied Consumer Economics Research Award given by the American Council on Consumer Interests. In 2000, he was the co-recipient of the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review Outstanding Journal Article Award. In 2001, Dr. Capps received the Frank Panyko Distinguished Service Award from the Food Distribution Research Society. In 2002, Dr. Capps was bestowed the Vice Chancellor's Award in Excellence for Research at Texas A&M University. Finally, he received the Association of Former Students Faculty Distinguished Achievement Award for Teaching from Texas A&M University in 2003. In 2004, Capps was named a "Fish Camp" namesake by the Texas A&M University undergraduate students.
Dr. Capps is a survivor of the San Francisco earthquake on October 17, 1989 and the New York City World Trade Center attack on September 11, 2001. Special Focus: econometrics, market analysis for agricultural commodities, applied statistics, and major league baseball.
As SVP/Chief Analytics Officer, Charles Chase is the lead architect
and strategist in using analytics to deliver consumer insights to the
Campbell's Soup Company. With more than 25 years of experience in the
consumer packaged goods industry, Chase is an expert in sales forecasting,
market response modeling, applied econometric modeling and supply chain
management.
Previously, as a member of the SAS Worldwide Marketing team Chase played a critical role in the development of the new SAS Forecast Server solution, which was awarded the "Trend-Setting Product of the Year" for 2005 by KMWorld magazine. He has also been involved in the re-engineering, design, and implementation of three forecasting/marketing intelligence process/systems. His employment history includes the MENNEN Company, Johnson & Johnson, CPI, Reckitt & Colman, Inc., the Polaroid Corporation, Coca Cola, Wyeth-Ayerst Pharmaceuticals, and Heineken USA.
Chase's authority in the area of forecasting/modeling & advanced marketing analytics is further exemplified by his prior posts as associate editor of the Journal of Business Forecasting and chairperson of the Institute of Business Forecasting (IBF) Best Practices Conferences. Chase is currently an active member of the Practitioner Review Board for Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. He has authored several articles in the area of sales forecasting, market response modeling, and has lectured at the Graduate School of Business Administration, St. Johns University, Graduate School of Management, Georgia Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, MIT, Information Systems Research Center, University of North Texas, Agricultural School of Economics, Texas A&M, University of Tennessee at Knoxville Sales Forecasting Management Forum Conference, and most recently at the Institute of Retail Management, Templeton College, University of Oxford. Chase has also been a guest lecturer at several major corporations, including Amgen, Aventis, Coors, E&J Gallo Winery, Hewlett-Packard Imaging & Printing, Kellogg USA, Inc., MagneTek, Inc., McNeil Consumer Products, Nestle, Ocean Spray Cranberries, Inc., SAP-AG, Germany, and S-B Power Tools.
Chase has also been named "2004 Pro to Know" in the 2004 February/March issue of Supply & Demand Chain Executive Magazine.
Sven F. Crone works as a
Research Associate in the Management Science department, having formerly
lectured and researched at the University of Hamburg, Germany, and at
George Mason University, USA and Stellenbosch University, South Africa, as
a visiting fellow. He is a PhD candidate at the University of Hamburg, and
has a B.S. equivalent (intermediate exams) in Management and an MBA
equivalent diploma (Diplom-Kaufmann) in Business Administration &
Economics from the University of Hamburg. He is a member of the Lancaster
Centre for Forecasting at Lancaster University Management School (LUMS).
Current research interest focus on the application of neural networks,
especially in business forecasting, data mining and managerial decision
support. He has published several original papers in academic journals
(Journal of Intelligent Systems, WISU) and international conference
proceedings (IEEE, ICAI, ICONIP), and is a member of the IEEE, INNS, GOR,
ORRSA, IBF and IIF.
Having worked in information technology and management consultancy, he has supervised various international projects in demand planning, data mining, process analysis & redesign and software selection with a variety of firms from industry and retailing.
Elaine Deschamps has over twelve years academic and professional
experience in forecasting, statistics, and policy analysis. In her current
position she serves as Senior Fiscal Analyst for the Washington State
Senate. Before that she spent eight years as Senior Forecaster for the
Caseload Forecast Council, an independent agency responsible for producing
entitlement caseload forecasts for the Washington State budget. Elaine
received her B.A. in political science and economics from the University of
Puget Sound and her Ph.D. in political science from Indiana University.
She has published in the International Journal of Forecasting and serves on
the Editorial Board of the applied forecasting journal Foresight. Elaine
also consults in both the public and private sector in areas such as
Medicaid forecasting, time series analysis, and politics of forecasting.
David Dickey is currently a professor in the Department of
Statistics at North Carolina State University. He has a Master's degree in
Math from Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, and a Ph.D. in Statistics from
Iowa State University. His research focuses on time series analysis,
dealing with data taken over time. In addition to writing four books, Dr.
Dickey has been published in numerous papers and has given over 50
presentations at a variety of professional events and organizations. He
has also been recognized as a member of the Academy of Outstanding Teachers
at N.C. State University.
Kent W. Everingham, Chief of Logistics Support Branch at the United
States Coast Guard's Aircraft Repair and Supply Center (AR&SC), is
responsible for the planning and execution of the Coast Guard's $150
Million Aviation Inventory Control Point (ICP) budget. He is also charged
with the optimization of an $810 Million aviation spare parts inventory
that supports more than 200 fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft operating
at 26 separate locations throughout the U.S., including aircraft overhaul
facilities for 4 different aircraft types.
LCDR Everingham, a commissioned officer and pilot in the US Coast Guard, has 10 years of aviation maintenance and logistics experience. He holds a M.S. in Industrial Administration from Purdue University's Krannert School of Management and a B.S. in Civil Engineering from the United States Coast Guard Academy.
Robert Fildes started his academic life as a mathematician and
applied probabilist, first at Oxford and subsequently at the University of
California, Davis. Having exhausted his interest in theoretical mathematics
he accepted a post at the Manchester Business School, meeting a career goal
to work in one of Britain's newly founded business schools and returning
him to his home town. Following an exhortation to 'do something useful' in
management science he found himself teaching and researching forecasting.
A well-received first book on forecasting led Spyros Makridakis to co-opt Fildes to write a chapter for the TIMS Studies in Management Science on forecasting method selection. It required a lot of reading, so putting to work the management efficiency concepts that were being taught all around him, he collected the references into a bibliography. Eventually, this turned into two publications listing 7000 of the major forecasting papers for the years 1965-1981. Based on the discoveries of this project, he wrote two survey papers (published in 1979 and 1985 in the Journal of the Operational Research Society 1985) summarizing the effectiveness of extrapolative and causal forecasting methods respectively. The latter paper is the progenitor of the more ambitious set of econometric principals laid out here.
In founding the Journal of Forecasting and in l985 the International Journal of Forecasting and later as Editor and Chief Editor of these journals, Fildes has collaborated for long periods with Scott Armstrong and Spyros Makridakis and both have had a major influence on his thinking.
Michael Gilliland joined SAS Institute in 2004, and is Marketing
Manager for SAS forecasting products. He has worked in consumer products
forecasting for over fifteen years, most recently as Director of
Forecasting at Sara Lee Intimate Apparel. His prior experience includes
three years of process design and system implementation consulting at
Answerthink, where he was Director – Demand Management Solutions, two
years as global forecasting manager at the high-tech consumer electronics
company Iomega, and ten years in operations research, production planning,
and forecasting in the food industry at Oscar Mayer / Kraft Foods. Mike
holds a BA in Philosophy from Michigan State University, and Master's
degrees in Philosophy and Mathematical Sciences from Johns Hopkins
University. He has presented at numerous professional conferences
including APICS, Institute of Business Forecasting, International Symposium
on Forecasting, and various SAS User Groups, and facilitates IBF's annual
Consumer Products & Retail Forecasting Forum. Mike has published in
Supply Chain Management Review, Journal of Business Forecasting, Foresight,
Inventory Reduction Report, and APICS e-News. He currently serves on the
Advisory Board of the Institute of Business Forecasting, and on the APICS
International Conference Committee.
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science in the Management
School at the University of Bath (UK). He has a degree in Economics from
the University of Liverpool, a Masters degree in Management Science from
the University of Warwick and a PhD in Management Science from Lancaster
University. His research interests concern the role of management judgment
in forecasting and decision making and he has published three books, and
over twenty research papers in journals. In addition, he is an Associate
Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting, and three other
international journals. He is currently working with colleagues at
Lancaster University on a large UK government funded research project that
is investigating the design of forecasting support systems and their use in
supply chain companies.
Ken Grant is Manager, Customer Programs and Product Development at
OGE Energy Corp. His education includes a BS from the University of
Oklahoma and an MBA from the University of Central Oklahoma. In his current
role at OGE he directs a team of professionals tasked with analyzing trends
in the customer and competitive environments, and developing targeted
customer and product strategies. His team is also responsible for
developing new products and services for the corporation, and has recently
added responsibility for determining the annual electric load forecast for
the company's utility subsidiary OG&E, Oklahoma's largest electric
utility.
Edward Hayes-Hall is a manager responsible for technical enablement
of solutions with Independent Software Vendors, including the design,
architecture, development, delivery and project management of solutions for
the IBM Systems family. Edward has twenty years of experience in the
computer industry in Software Development, Customer Service, Consulting
Services and Marketing, at both a technical and managerial level.
In his role, Edward has worked extensively with SAS products, authoring or co-authoring several whitepapers including: "The Deployment of SAS eBI Solution in a Large IBM POWER5 Environment" (2006), "Tuning Guide for SAS 9 on IBM AIX 5L" (2006) and "Achieving Optimal I/O Performance on pSeries Servers with SAS 9" (2005).
Edward trained to postgraduate level as a Civil Engineer primarily interested in the mechanics and dynamics of groundwater and other fluids through structures and geological media. Edward has significant academic and industry sector experience in the environmental and earth sciences including seismic processing, petroleum exploration, geochemistry, geophysics, civil engineering, meteorology and hydrology. Over the last six years, Edward has also gained technical and business experience in the telecommunications, manufacturing, distribution, retail and other industry segments.
Edward is British born having moved to the United States in May 1995. Edward naturalized as a US citizen in 2001. Edward is 43, married with four children and lives in southeastern Minnesota.
Dr. Chaman Jain is a Professor of Economics at St. John's
University, and Editor of the Journal of Business Forecasting. He has
written over 100 articles, mostly in the area of forecasting and planning;
and has authored/co-authored eight books, six in the area of forecasting
and planning. In a consulting capacity, he has worked for a number of
organizations including, Brown and Williamson, Sweetheart Cup, Eastman
Kodak, CECO Door, Hewlett Packard, Jockey International, Union Fidelity
Life Insurance Company and Bilgore Groves.
In his 15 years of experience in applying statistical and machine learning
methods to solving business problems, Brij Masand has created
innovative data mining solutions for many industries including
telecommunications, financial services, e-commerce and intelligent text
processing. His current interests include adapting data mining techniques
to enable strategic business decision making. His recent work has focused
on applying survival analysis for business forecasting – producing
long range aggregate churn forecasts for telecom and financial services for
example.
Apart from survival analysis, Brij is regarded as an expert in the areas of text mining and web usage mining and has authored several research articles on data mining in general. He co-founded the WEBKDD workshops at SIG-KDD and has helped organize and lead them since '99. He has three patents in the area of text mining and data mining. He has an MS in EECS from MIT.
Examples of recent areas of work include:
- Forecasting in telecom and financial services: Application of survival analysis to produce:
- a long range accurate (18 months) churn forecast for major wireless providers
- accurate estimates of remaining lifetime estimates for individual subscribers to help estimate future expected life time value of customers.
- quantitatively relating customer satisfaction to customer value.
- Automated Modeling and predicting cellular churn on a national basis in more than 20 major markets for a major wireless provider
- Validating and resolving ambiguities in strategic web metrics for a major online ecommerce engine.
- Modeling repeat visitor behavior for an on-line yellow pages services to identify demographic segments
- Building an intelligent agent for ranking news by relevance in real time and detecting concepts and classifying news stories for a major newspaper publisher.
As director of SAS' technology product marketing in worldwide marketing,
Anne Milley oversees the product marketing of SAS
technologies. Her ties to SAS began with her thesis on bank failure
prediction models and the term structure of interest rates. She completed
this at The Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas and became a manager in the
credit group. She continued her use of SAS at 7-Eleven, Inc. as a senior
business consultant performing sales analysis and designing and conducting
tests to aid in strategic decision-making, e.g., price sensitivity studies,
advertising and promotion analysis.
Milley has co-authored a Best Practices Paper, "Data Mining and the Case for Sampling," various articles and an award-winning report for the 1999 KDD Contest. She co-chaired for The SAS Data Mining Technology Conference, M2001 and M2002. She has served on web mining committees for KDD and SIAM and was on the Scientific Advisory Committee for Data Mining 2002.
Milley has a Master of Arts and Bachelor of Arts in economics from Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, did post-graduate work at Aachen Technical University (Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen) and is proficient in German.
Jerry L. Oglesby holds a Ph.D. in Statistics
from Texas A&M University, an M.S. in Mathematics from Lamar University, and a
B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Mississippi. He currently works
for SAS as the Director of Higher Education Consulting within the Education
Division. This department is charged with supporting SAS in the university
wide community. It has, as its major goal, the introduction of SAS
training materials and software in the curriculums of courses across many
units within the universities. Prior to starting this group, he was
Director of Analytical Consulting within the Professional Services
Division. As Director of Analytical Consulting he grew the Department from
its formation to approximately forty modelers and business analysts whose
primary function was to provide analytical support and expertise to SAS'
sales force and customers. This group was largely responsible for the
support of the successful launch of SAS' award winning data mining
solution, Enterprise Miner.
From 1990 until joining SAS in July of 1996, Jerry was employed by Monsanto Chemical Company as plant statistician and Manufacturing Technologist. He was CEO and founding President of SCI Data Systems from 1977 to 1990. Following completion of his doctorate at Texas A&M in 1971, he was a professor of Statistics at the University of West Florida where he established the Institute for Statistical and Mathematical Modeling for doing analytical and computational consulting for clients on and off campus.
Jerry serves on several advisory boards in support of statistics and data mining:
- Data Mining Advisory Board, College of Arts & Sciences, University of Central Florida
- Central Michigan University Research Corporation, Center for Applied Research & Technology, Central Michigan University
- Center for the Management of Information Systems, Department of Information & Operations Management, Mays Business School, Texas A&M University
- Master of Marketing Research Program, Coca-Cola Center for Marketing Studies, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia
- Institute of Business Intelligence, Department of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management Science, Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
- Department of Statistics & Operations Technology, Daniels College of Business, University of Denver
- Industry Advisory Committee, North Carolina Community College System
- Information Technology Advisory Committee, Pennsylvania College of Technology
- Computer Information Systems Division Advisory Board, Wake Technical Community College
- Decision Sciences & Center for Quality & Productivity Advisory Board, Business Computer Information System, College of Business Administration, University of North Texas
Ernie Podraza is currently an Energy Supply Analyst with Reliant
Energy. He has a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Houston. He
has 14 years of load research experience research supporting integrated
electric utility rate filings while at Houston Lighting & Power. In
1999, he moved to Reliant Energy, forecasting electric retail and wholesale
loads in the deregulated ERCOT and PJM Markets. He has been using SAS to
model electric load since 1983. In addition, since 2001, he has served as
Chair of the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) Profiling
Working Group, a forum for market participants to participate in load
profiling issues as part of the ERCOT Stakeholder process
Ken Seiden is Vice President at Quantec, LLC, a SAS Silver Alliance
Partner. He holds a B.A. degree in Economics from the University of
Connecticut, an M.S. degree in Economics from the University of Oregon, and
a Doctorate in Economics from the University of Oregon. Dr. Seiden's
practice areas include demand forecasting, resource planning, cost-benefit
analysis, and market and program evaluations. Dr. Seiden has contributed
significantly to these fields by developing load forecasting tools that
explicitly account for weather uncertainty, price volatility, and other
risk factors faced by electric and gas utilities. He has also developed
modeling tools that integrate "what if" program assessments with demand
forecasts, ensuring an accurate portrayal of the magnitude of marketing
investments.
Mark Thompson is president and founder of Forefront Economics Inc, a
SAS Alliance Partner located in Beaverton, Oregon. Mark has 20 years of
energy utility experience, with the last 13 years at Forefront Economics, a
consultancy specializing in energy economics. Prior to founding Forefront
Economics, Mark was responsible for short-term sales forecasting for all
sectors at Portland General Electric. As Manager of Economic Forecasts at
Union Pacific Railroad, Mark was responsible for forecasting traffic levels
in 50 commodity groups. He is currently a panelist for the Western Blue
Chip Economic Forecast, published by Arizona State University.
Mark received his BS in Agricultural Economics from Oklahoma State University and his MS in Agricultural and Resource Economics at Oregon State University; both degrees with minors in Statistics. Over Mark's 30 years of professional life, he has presented numerous papers at energy conferences (including ACEEE, IAEE, AESP and IEPE) and at SAS user conferences, receiving best contributed paper/presentation at SUGI 24 in the Statistics section. Mark has been a SAS software user since 1977.
Thomas Tileston is Vice President, Global Forecasting at Warner Home
Video, Inc., a division of Warner Bros. Entertainment.
Mr. Tileston is responsible for the design and continuous improvement of the global consumer demand forecasting process. He directs a cross-departmental team of forecasting practitioners tasked with defining, measuring, analyzing, improving and controlling all Warner Home Video business rules and associated data involved in forecasting. Mr. Tileston is also the Warner Home Video "Data Czar." In this role he chairs the Data Governance committee which is responsible for defining and implementing all data-driven business rules.
Mr. Tileston has also developed an extensive motion picture talent score which is in use today by Warner Bros Motion Pictures and is the foundation for new-release theatrical DVD forecast. Before joining Warner Home Video, Mr. Tileston spent 16 years in Data Mining & Business Intelligence in the retail and internet industries. Mr. Tileston is also an instructor of economics in Long Beach, CA where he teaches microeconomic theory and consumer behavior theory.
Terry Woodfield is a Statistical Services Specialist in the Education
Division of SAS Institute, Inc. and served as co-chair for M2003, SAS' 6th
annual data mining conference. Dr. Woodfield has more than 28 years of SAS
programming experience and has provided training and mentoring services in
the areas of statistical forecasting, predictive modeling, and data mining.
At SAS, Dr. Woodfield has developed courses in statistical forecasting, Web
mining, and text mining. He is also active in the statistics profession,
presenting papers at numerous statistical conferences and professional
meetings, and he has served on steering committees in data mining and
forecasting. He has helped develop forecasting and predictive modeling
solutions for insurance, energy, and retail companies and been an expert
witness in utility ratemaking hearings. Before joining SAS, Dr. Woodfield
was Chief Statistician at HNC Software and other prior experience includes
statistical software development in SAS/ETS Research and Development and
university teaching and research.